S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 10?

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Current Probability

38.0%

24h Change

-24.0 pp

Signal Score

50/100

Data Confidence

Medium (69)

24h probability fell 24.0pp

Market data

Updated 1 hour ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-10 19:03 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $15,751
Medium data confidence (68)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

38.0%

24h Change

-24.0 pp

7d Change

Only 3d of listing history

Coverage

3d of stored history

79 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 10, 07:00 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/10/2026, 7:00:00 PM	38.0%
8/10/2026, 6:00:00 PM	26.5%
8/10/2026, 5:00:00 PM	39.5%
8/10/2026, 4:00:00 PM	73.0%
8/10/2026, 3:00:00 PM	54.0%
8/10/2026, 2:00:00 PM	54.0%
8/10/2026, 1:00:00 PM	41.5%
8/10/2026, 12:00:00 PM	53.5%
8/10/2026, 11:00:00 AM	57.5%
8/10/2026, 10:00:00 AM	62.5%
8/10/2026, 9:00:00 AM	65.0%
8/10/2026, 8:00:00 AM	64.5%
8/10/2026, 7:00:00 AM	59.0%
8/10/2026, 6:00:00 AM	61.5%
8/10/2026, 5:00:00 AM	59.0%
8/10/2026, 4:00:00 AM	55.5%
8/10/2026, 3:00:00 AM	54.5%
8/10/2026, 2:00:00 AM	52.5%
8/10/2026, 1:00:00 AM	44.0%
8/10/2026, 12:00:00 AM	48.0%
8/9/2026, 11:00:00 PM	52.0%
8/9/2026, 10:00:00 PM	56.0%
8/9/2026, 9:00:00 PM	62.0%
8/9/2026, 8:00:00 PM	62.0%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+11.5 pp

7d Change

Only 3d of listing history

24h Volume

$94.4K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$15.8K

Market Significance

Moderate (68)

Market Status

Closed

End Date

Aug 10, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 50/100.

Probability Momentum 80

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 83

Persistence 10

Data Confidence Medium (69)

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