Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?

Open · Resolves in 375 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

94.7%

24h Change

+25.2 pp

Signal Score

83/100

Data Confidence

High (83)

24h probability rose 25.2pp; volume is 6.2x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 4 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-21 04:13 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 25.2pp
24h volume is 6.2x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $39,002

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

94.7%

24h Change

+25.2 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

171 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 21, 04:00 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
9/21/2026, 4:00:00 AM	94.7%
9/21/2026, 3:00:00 AM	93.5%
9/21/2026, 2:00:00 AM	93.2%
9/21/2026, 1:00:00 AM	93.8%
9/21/2026, 12:00:00 AM	94.0%
9/20/2026, 11:00:00 PM	94.8%
9/20/2026, 10:15:00 PM	91.8%
9/20/2026, 10:00:00 PM	95.0%
9/20/2026, 9:00:00 PM	88.5%
9/20/2026, 8:00:00 PM	66.5%
9/20/2026, 7:00:00 PM	64.5%
9/20/2026, 6:30:00 PM	61.5%
9/20/2026, 6:00:00 PM	69.0%
9/20/2026, 5:00:00 PM	71.0%
9/20/2026, 4:00:00 PM	71.5%
9/20/2026, 3:45:00 PM	73.5%
9/20/2026, 3:00:00 PM	73.0%
9/20/2026, 2:00:00 PM	76.0%
9/20/2026, 1:00:00 PM	73.0%
9/20/2026, 12:00:00 PM	72.0%
9/20/2026, 11:00:00 AM	73.5%
9/20/2026, 10:45:00 AM	72.5%
9/20/2026, 10:00:00 AM	72.0%
9/20/2026, 9:00:00 AM	72.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+1.2 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$201.1K

Volume vs Baseline

6.2x baseline

Liquidity

$39.0K

Market Significance

High (87)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 375 days

End Date

Oct 1, 2027

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 83/100.

Probability Momentum 84

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 90

Persistence 43

Data Confidence High (83)

Next Steps

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