US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 10, 2026?

Open · Resolves in 2 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

5.5%

24h Change

-22.0 pp

Signal Score

52/100

Data Confidence

Medium (62)

24h probability fell 22.0pp

Market data

Updated 1 hour ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-09 12:59 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $55,078
Medium data confidence (62)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

5.5%

24h Change

-22.0 pp

7d Change

Only 2d of listing history

Coverage

2d of stored history

49 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 9, 12:45 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/9/2026, 12:45:00 PM	5.5%
8/9/2026, 12:00:00 PM	6.5%
8/9/2026, 11:00:00 AM	6.5%
8/9/2026, 10:30:00 AM	6.5%
8/9/2026, 10:00:00 AM	7.0%
8/9/2026, 9:00:00 AM	7.0%
8/9/2026, 8:45:00 AM	7.0%
8/9/2026, 8:00:00 AM	8.0%
8/9/2026, 7:00:00 AM	8.0%
8/9/2026, 6:00:00 AM	8.5%
8/9/2026, 5:00:00 AM	9.0%
8/9/2026, 4:00:00 AM	9.0%
8/9/2026, 3:00:00 AM	9.0%
8/9/2026, 2:00:00 AM	9.0%
8/9/2026, 1:00:00 AM	8.5%
8/9/2026, 12:00:00 AM	8.5%
8/8/2026, 11:00:00 PM	8.5%
8/8/2026, 10:00:00 PM	8.5%
8/8/2026, 9:00:00 PM	9.5%
8/8/2026, 8:00:00 PM	12.0%
8/8/2026, 7:00:00 PM	13.5%
8/8/2026, 6:00:00 PM	14.5%
8/8/2026, 5:00:00 PM	14.0%
8/8/2026, 4:00:00 PM	13.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-1.0 pp

7d Change

Only 2d of listing history

24h Volume

$63.8K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$55.1K

Market Significance

High (71)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 2 days

End Date

Aug 10, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 52/100.

Probability Momentum 73

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 86

Persistence 43

Data Confidence Medium (62)

Next Steps

Keep exploring radar picks or open the full market catalog.

Back to radar Browse all markets View on Polymarket ↗