US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 11, 2026?

Open · Resolves in 2 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

3.0%

24h Change

-8.0 pp

Signal Score

27/100

Data Confidence

Medium (59)

24h probability fell 8.0pp

Market data

Updated 2 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-09 22:35 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $66,541
Medium data confidence (59)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

3.0%

24h Change

-8.0 pp

7d Change

Only 2d of listing history

Coverage

2d of stored history

57 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 9, 10:30 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/9/2026, 10:30:00 PM	3.0%
8/9/2026, 10:00:00 PM	3.1%
8/9/2026, 9:00:00 PM	2.7%
8/9/2026, 8:00:00 PM	2.6%
8/9/2026, 7:00:00 PM	2.6%
8/9/2026, 6:00:00 PM	3.1%
8/9/2026, 5:00:00 PM	7.5%
8/9/2026, 4:00:00 PM	7.5%
8/9/2026, 3:00:00 PM	8.5%
8/9/2026, 2:00:00 PM	8.5%
8/9/2026, 1:00:00 PM	9.0%
8/9/2026, 12:00:00 PM	9.5%
8/9/2026, 11:00:00 AM	9.0%
8/9/2026, 10:00:00 AM	9.5%
8/9/2026, 9:00:00 AM	10.5%
8/9/2026, 8:00:00 AM	10.0%
8/9/2026, 7:00:00 AM	9.5%
8/9/2026, 6:00:00 AM	11.5%
8/9/2026, 5:00:00 AM	11.5%
8/9/2026, 4:00:00 AM	11.5%
8/9/2026, 3:00:00 AM	11.5%
8/9/2026, 2:00:00 AM	12.0%
8/9/2026, 1:00:00 AM	12.0%
8/9/2026, 12:00:00 AM	13.0%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+0.3 pp

7d Change

Only 2d of listing history

24h Volume

$88.8K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$66.5K

Market Significance

High (72)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 2 days

End Date

Aug 11, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 27/100.

Probability Momentum 27

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 88

Persistence 10

Data Confidence Medium (59)

Next Steps

Keep exploring radar picks or open the full market catalog.

Back to radar Browse all markets View on Polymarket ↗