US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 13, 2026?

Open · Resolves in 3 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

2.4%

24h Change

-4.2 pp

Signal Score

27/100

Data Confidence

High (73)

24h probability fell 4.2pp

Market data

Updated 15 minutes ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-11 07:14 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $86,884
High data confidence (73)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

2.4%

24h Change

-4.2 pp

7d Change

Only 3d of listing history

Coverage

4d of stored history

89 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 11, 07:00 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/11/2026, 7:00:00 AM	2.4%
8/11/2026, 6:00:00 AM	2.8%
8/11/2026, 5:00:00 AM	2.9%
8/11/2026, 4:00:00 AM	2.9%
8/11/2026, 3:00:00 AM	3.1%
8/11/2026, 2:00:00 AM	4.5%
8/11/2026, 1:00:00 AM	4.5%
8/11/2026, 12:00:00 AM	4.3%
8/10/2026, 11:00:00 PM	4.3%
8/10/2026, 10:00:00 PM	4.3%
8/10/2026, 9:00:00 PM	4.8%
8/10/2026, 8:00:00 PM	4.3%
8/10/2026, 7:00:00 PM	4.3%
8/10/2026, 6:00:00 PM	4.3%
8/10/2026, 5:00:00 PM	4.7%
8/10/2026, 4:00:00 PM	4.2%
8/10/2026, 3:00:00 PM	3.8%
8/10/2026, 2:00:00 PM	4.5%
8/10/2026, 1:00:00 PM	4.3%
8/10/2026, 12:00:00 PM	5.8%
8/10/2026, 11:00:00 AM	5.8%
8/10/2026, 10:00:00 AM	5.9%
8/10/2026, 9:00:00 AM	5.7%
8/10/2026, 8:00:00 AM	4.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-0.4 pp

7d Change

Only 3d of listing history

24h Volume

$114.8K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$86.9K

Market Significance

High (73)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 3 days

End Date

Aug 13, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 27/100.

Probability Momentum 14

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 90

Persistence 46

Data Confidence High (73)

Next Steps

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