Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?

Open · Resolves in 9 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

96.3%

24h Change

+0.8 pp

Signal Score

38/100

Data Confidence

High (88)

24h probability rose 0.8pp; volume is 1.7x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 1 hour ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-22 16:38 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 0.8pp
24h volume is 1.7x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $174,967

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

96.3%

24h Change

+0.8 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

182 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 22, 04:30 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
9/22/2026, 4:30:00 PM	96.3%
9/22/2026, 4:00:00 PM	96.5%
9/22/2026, 3:00:00 PM	95.5%
9/22/2026, 2:00:00 PM	95.8%
9/22/2026, 1:00:00 PM	95.8%
9/22/2026, 12:00:00 PM	96.5%
9/22/2026, 11:15:00 AM	96.0%
9/22/2026, 11:00:00 AM	96.0%
9/22/2026, 10:00:00 AM	96.0%
9/22/2026, 9:00:00 AM	96.0%
9/22/2026, 8:00:00 AM	95.9%
9/22/2026, 7:00:00 AM	95.7%
9/22/2026, 6:00:00 AM	96.0%
9/22/2026, 5:00:00 AM	96.2%
9/22/2026, 4:00:00 AM	96.0%
9/22/2026, 3:00:00 AM	96.0%
9/22/2026, 2:00:00 AM	95.5%
9/22/2026, 1:00:00 AM	95.3%
9/22/2026, 12:00:00 AM	95.3%
9/21/2026, 11:00:00 PM	95.5%
9/21/2026, 10:00:00 PM	95.7%
9/21/2026, 9:00:00 PM	95.8%
9/21/2026, 8:00:00 PM	96.8%
9/21/2026, 7:00:00 PM	95.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+0.7 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$151.4K

Volume vs Baseline

1.7x baseline

Liquidity

$175.0K

Market Significance

High (75)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 9 days

End Date

Sep 30, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 38/100.

Probability Momentum 3

Volume Activity 34

Liquidity Quality 92

Persistence 96

Data Confidence High (88)

Next Steps

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