Bitcoin Up or Down on August 9?

Open · Resolves in 1 day View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

22.0%

24h Change

-27.5 pp

Signal Score

63/100

Data Confidence

Medium (64)

24h probability fell 27.5pp

Market data

Updated 1 hour ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-09 12:59 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $30,341
Medium data confidence (64)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

22.0%

24h Change

-27.5 pp

7d Change

Only 1d of listing history

Coverage

2d of stored history

47 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 9, 12:45 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/9/2026, 12:45:00 PM	22.0%
8/9/2026, 12:00:00 PM	25.5%
8/9/2026, 11:00:00 AM	30.0%
8/9/2026, 10:30:00 AM	29.0%
8/9/2026, 10:00:00 AM	21.5%
8/9/2026, 9:00:00 AM	17.5%
8/9/2026, 8:45:00 AM	18.5%
8/9/2026, 8:00:00 AM	21.5%
8/9/2026, 7:00:00 AM	24.5%
8/9/2026, 6:00:00 AM	20.5%
8/9/2026, 5:00:00 AM	20.5%
8/9/2026, 4:00:00 AM	21.5%
8/9/2026, 3:00:00 AM	26.5%
8/9/2026, 2:00:00 AM	29.5%
8/9/2026, 1:00:00 AM	39.5%
8/9/2026, 12:00:00 AM	38.5%
8/8/2026, 11:00:00 PM	38.5%
8/8/2026, 10:00:00 PM	42.5%
8/8/2026, 9:00:00 PM	48.5%
8/8/2026, 8:00:00 PM	48.5%
8/8/2026, 7:00:00 PM	46.0%
8/8/2026, 6:00:00 PM	52.0%
8/8/2026, 5:00:00 PM	49.0%
8/8/2026, 4:00:00 PM	47.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-8.0 pp

7d Change

Only 1d of listing history

24h Volume

$122.5K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$30.3K

Market Significance

High (71)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 1 day

End Date

Aug 9, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 63/100.

Probability Momentum 92

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 87

Persistence 57

Data Confidence Medium (64)

Next Steps

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