Ethereum Up or Down on August 9?

Open · Resolves in 1 day View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

25.5%

24h Change

-25.0 pp

Signal Score

62/100

Data Confidence

Medium (65)

24h probability fell 25.0pp

Market data

Updated 1 hour ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-09 12:59 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $24,569
Medium data confidence (65)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

25.5%

24h Change

-25.0 pp

7d Change

Only 1d of listing history

Coverage

2d of stored history

45 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 9, 12:45 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/9/2026, 12:45:00 PM	25.5%
8/9/2026, 12:00:00 PM	35.0%
8/9/2026, 11:00:00 AM	41.5%
8/9/2026, 10:00:00 AM	45.5%
8/9/2026, 9:00:00 AM	27.5%
8/9/2026, 8:00:00 AM	38.0%
8/9/2026, 7:00:00 AM	38.0%
8/9/2026, 6:00:00 AM	26.5%
8/9/2026, 5:00:00 AM	24.5%
8/9/2026, 4:00:00 AM	27.5%
8/9/2026, 3:00:00 AM	29.5%
8/9/2026, 2:00:00 AM	33.5%
8/9/2026, 1:00:00 AM	38.0%
8/9/2026, 12:00:00 AM	37.0%
8/8/2026, 11:00:00 PM	36.5%
8/8/2026, 10:00:00 PM	45.5%
8/8/2026, 9:00:00 PM	44.5%
8/8/2026, 8:00:00 PM	44.5%
8/8/2026, 7:00:00 PM	46.0%
8/8/2026, 6:00:00 PM	52.5%
8/8/2026, 5:00:00 PM	48.5%
8/8/2026, 4:00:00 PM	50.0%
8/8/2026, 3:00:00 PM	50.5%
8/8/2026, 2:00:00 PM	50.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-16.0 pp

7d Change

Only 1d of listing history

24h Volume

$49.2K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$24.6K

Market Significance

Moderate (68)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 1 day

End Date

Aug 9, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 62/100.

Probability Momentum 83

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 82

Persistence 78

Data Confidence Medium (65)

Next Steps

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