Yabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17?

Open · Resolves in 39 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

98.9%

24h Change

+48.4 pp

Signal Score

68/100

Data Confidence

Medium (64)

24h probability rose 48.4pp

Market data

Updated 1 hour ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-10 16:57 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $33,847
Medium data confidence (64)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

98.9%

24h Change

+48.4 pp

7d Change

Only 3d of listing history

Coverage

3d of stored history

75 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 10, 04:45 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/10/2026, 4:45:00 PM	98.9%
8/10/2026, 4:00:00 PM	79.5%
8/10/2026, 3:00:00 PM	79.5%
8/10/2026, 2:00:00 PM	75.5%
8/10/2026, 1:00:00 PM	62.5%
8/10/2026, 12:00:00 PM	63.5%
8/10/2026, 11:00:00 AM	63.0%
8/10/2026, 10:00:00 AM	69.5%
8/10/2026, 9:15:00 AM	63.0%
8/10/2026, 9:00:00 AM	68.5%
8/10/2026, 8:00:00 AM	62.5%
8/10/2026, 7:45:00 AM	76.0%
8/10/2026, 7:00:00 AM	64.0%
8/10/2026, 6:00:00 AM	65.5%
8/10/2026, 5:30:00 AM	68.0%
8/10/2026, 5:00:00 AM	61.5%
8/10/2026, 4:00:00 AM	60.5%
8/10/2026, 3:00:00 AM	60.5%
8/10/2026, 2:00:00 AM	58.5%
8/10/2026, 1:00:00 AM	57.5%
8/10/2026, 12:00:00 AM	62.0%
8/9/2026, 11:00:00 PM	61.0%
8/9/2026, 10:00:00 PM	61.5%
8/9/2026, 9:00:00 PM	62.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+19.4 pp

7d Change

Only 3d of listing history

24h Volume

$113.7K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$33.8K

Market Significance

High (72)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 39 days

End Date

Sep 17, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 68/100.

Probability Momentum 100

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 87

Persistence 64

Data Confidence Medium (64)

Next Steps

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