Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 12?

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Current Probability

99.9%

24h Change

+99.3 pp

Signal Score

69/100

Data Confidence

High (76)

24h probability rose 99.3pp

Market data

Updated 5 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-12 22:45 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $290,863
High data confidence (76)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

99.9%

24h Change

+99.3 pp

7d Change

Only 5d of listing history

Coverage

5d of stored history

122 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 12, 10:45 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/12/2026, 10:45:00 PM	99.9%
8/12/2026, 10:00:00 PM	95.3%
8/12/2026, 9:00:00 PM	70.4%
8/12/2026, 8:45:00 PM	62.1%
8/12/2026, 8:00:00 PM	39.1%
8/12/2026, 7:00:00 PM	29.8%
8/12/2026, 6:00:00 PM	27.3%
8/12/2026, 5:00:00 PM	16.5%
8/12/2026, 4:00:00 PM	1.4%
8/12/2026, 3:00:00 PM	1.4%
8/12/2026, 2:00:00 PM	1.9%
8/12/2026, 1:00:00 PM	1.8%
8/12/2026, 12:00:00 PM	0.6%
8/12/2026, 11:00:00 AM	0.7%
8/12/2026, 10:00:00 AM	0.8%
8/12/2026, 9:00:00 AM	1.1%
8/12/2026, 8:00:00 AM	1.5%
8/12/2026, 7:00:00 AM	1.6%
8/12/2026, 6:00:00 AM	1.1%
8/12/2026, 5:00:00 AM	1.1%
8/12/2026, 4:00:00 AM	0.9%
8/12/2026, 3:00:00 AM	0.9%
8/12/2026, 2:00:00 AM	0.7%
8/12/2026, 1:00:00 AM	0.9%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+29.5 pp

7d Change

Only 5d of listing history

24h Volume

$1.7M

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$290.9K

Market Significance

High (79)

Market Status

Closed

End Date

Aug 12, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 69/100.

Probability Momentum 100

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 100

Persistence 58

Data Confidence High (76)

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