Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?

Open · Resolves in 1 day View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

100.0%

24h Change

+98.2 pp

Signal Score

68/100

Data Confidence

High (75)

24h probability rose 98.2pp

Market data

Updated 5 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-12 22:45 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $127,020
High data confidence (75)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

100.0%

24h Change

+98.2 pp

7d Change

Only 5d of listing history

Coverage

5d of stored history

122 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 12, 10:45 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/12/2026, 10:45:00 PM	100.0%
8/12/2026, 10:00:00 PM	96.9%
8/12/2026, 9:00:00 PM	78.4%
8/12/2026, 8:45:00 PM	75.0%
8/12/2026, 8:00:00 PM	62.8%
8/12/2026, 7:00:00 PM	56.0%
8/12/2026, 6:00:00 PM	56.5%
8/12/2026, 5:00:00 PM	31.5%
8/12/2026, 4:00:00 PM	10.9%
8/12/2026, 3:00:00 PM	5.9%
8/12/2026, 2:00:00 PM	6.3%
8/12/2026, 1:00:00 PM	7.0%
8/12/2026, 12:00:00 PM	4.3%
8/12/2026, 11:00:00 AM	5.5%
8/12/2026, 10:00:00 AM	4.2%
8/12/2026, 9:00:00 AM	4.6%
8/12/2026, 8:00:00 AM	4.7%
8/12/2026, 7:00:00 AM	4.7%
8/12/2026, 6:00:00 AM	5.0%
8/12/2026, 5:00:00 AM	5.0%
8/12/2026, 4:00:00 AM	5.3%
8/12/2026, 3:00:00 AM	2.6%
8/12/2026, 2:00:00 AM	2.9%
8/12/2026, 1:00:00 AM	2.9%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+21.6 pp

7d Change

Only 5d of listing history

24h Volume

$644.1K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$127.0K

Market Significance

High (78)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 1 day

End Date

Aug 13, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 68/100.

Probability Momentum 100

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 98

Persistence 53

Data Confidence High (75)

Next Steps

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