Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 14?

Open · Resolves in 5 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

3.7%

24h Change

-3.3 pp

Signal Score

27/100

Data Confidence

Medium (64)

24h probability fell 3.3pp

Market data

Updated 10 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-10 07:49 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $12,977
Medium data confidence (64)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

3.7%

24h Change

-3.3 pp

7d Change

Only 2d of listing history

Coverage

2d of stored history

58 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 10, 07:45 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/10/2026, 7:45:00 AM	3.7%
8/10/2026, 7:00:00 AM	5.0%
8/10/2026, 6:00:00 AM	5.5%
8/10/2026, 5:00:00 AM	6.9%
8/10/2026, 4:00:00 AM	6.9%
8/10/2026, 3:00:00 AM	6.7%
8/10/2026, 2:00:00 AM	6.3%
8/10/2026, 1:00:00 AM	6.2%
8/10/2026, 12:00:00 AM	9.4%
8/9/2026, 11:00:00 PM	2.6%
8/9/2026, 10:00:00 PM	1.9%
8/9/2026, 9:00:00 PM	2.1%
8/9/2026, 8:00:00 PM	2.1%
8/9/2026, 7:00:00 PM	2.5%
8/9/2026, 6:00:00 PM	2.5%
8/9/2026, 5:00:00 PM	2.5%
8/9/2026, 4:00:00 PM	2.6%
8/9/2026, 3:00:00 PM	2.9%
8/9/2026, 2:00:00 PM	3.5%
8/9/2026, 1:00:00 PM	3.5%
8/9/2026, 12:00:00 PM	3.5%
8/9/2026, 11:00:00 AM	3.5%
8/9/2026, 10:00:00 AM	3.6%
8/9/2026, 9:00:00 AM	3.6%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-1.8 pp

7d Change

Only 2d of listing history

24h Volume

$27.3K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$13.0K

Market Significance

Moderate (65)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 5 days

End Date

Aug 14, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 27/100.

Probability Momentum 11

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 77

Persistence 72

Data Confidence Medium (64)

Next Steps

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