Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 15?

Open · Resolves in 3 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

100.0%

24h Change

+90.5 pp

Signal Score

66/100

Data Confidence

High (74)

24h probability rose 90.5pp

Market data

Updated 5 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-12 22:45 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $94,238
High data confidence (74)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

100.0%

24h Change

+90.5 pp

7d Change

Only 5d of listing history

Coverage

5d of stored history

122 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 12, 10:45 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/12/2026, 10:45:00 PM	100.0%
8/12/2026, 10:00:00 PM	97.5%
8/12/2026, 9:00:00 PM	86.5%
8/12/2026, 8:45:00 PM	86.5%
8/12/2026, 8:00:00 PM	75.5%
8/12/2026, 7:00:00 PM	70.5%
8/12/2026, 6:00:00 PM	66.0%
8/12/2026, 5:00:00 PM	58.0%
8/12/2026, 4:00:00 PM	25.0%
8/12/2026, 3:00:00 PM	14.5%
8/12/2026, 2:00:00 PM	15.5%
8/12/2026, 1:00:00 PM	20.5%
8/12/2026, 12:00:00 PM	15.5%
8/12/2026, 11:00:00 AM	15.5%
8/12/2026, 10:00:00 AM	15.5%
8/12/2026, 9:00:00 AM	17.0%
8/12/2026, 8:00:00 AM	16.5%
8/12/2026, 7:00:00 AM	17.0%
8/12/2026, 6:00:00 AM	14.5%
8/12/2026, 5:00:00 AM	13.0%
8/12/2026, 4:00:00 AM	13.5%
8/12/2026, 3:00:00 AM	9.5%
8/12/2026, 2:00:00 AM	10.0%
8/12/2026, 1:00:00 AM	9.0%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+13.5 pp

7d Change

Only 5d of listing history

24h Volume

$149.2K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$94.2K

Market Significance

High (74)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 3 days

End Date

Aug 15, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 66/100.

Probability Momentum 100

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 92

Persistence 49

Data Confidence High (74)

Next Steps

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