Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 16?

Open · Resolves in 7 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

8.0%

24h Change

+0.5 pp

Signal Score

14/100

Data Confidence

Medium (58)

24h probability rose 0.5pp

Market data

Updated 1 hour ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-10 16:57 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $20,066
Medium data confidence (58)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

8.0%

24h Change

+0.5 pp

7d Change

Only 2d of listing history

Coverage

3d of stored history

68 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 10, 04:45 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/10/2026, 4:45:00 PM	8.0%
8/10/2026, 4:00:00 PM	8.0%
8/10/2026, 3:00:00 PM	8.5%
8/10/2026, 2:00:00 PM	8.5%
8/10/2026, 1:00:00 PM	8.0%
8/10/2026, 12:00:00 PM	9.5%
8/10/2026, 11:00:00 AM	9.5%
8/10/2026, 10:00:00 AM	9.5%
8/10/2026, 9:15:00 AM	9.5%
8/10/2026, 9:00:00 AM	9.5%
8/10/2026, 8:00:00 AM	11.0%
8/10/2026, 7:00:00 AM	12.0%
8/10/2026, 6:00:00 AM	12.0%
8/10/2026, 5:00:00 AM	12.5%
8/10/2026, 4:00:00 AM	12.5%
8/10/2026, 3:00:00 AM	13.0%
8/10/2026, 2:00:00 AM	12.5%
8/10/2026, 1:00:00 AM	12.5%
8/10/2026, 12:00:00 AM	10.5%
8/9/2026, 11:00:00 PM	8.0%
8/9/2026, 10:00:00 PM	8.0%
8/9/2026, 9:00:00 PM	7.5%
8/9/2026, 8:00:00 PM	7.0%
8/9/2026, 7:00:00 PM	7.0%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-0.5 pp

7d Change

Only 2d of listing history

24h Volume

$38.0K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$20.1K

Market Significance

Moderate (67)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 7 days

End Date

Aug 16, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 14/100.

Probability Momentum 2

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 80

Persistence 10

Data Confidence Medium (58)

Next Steps

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