Will Kai and Speed have between 30 and 49 total in-game deaths during their Minecraft marathon?

Open · Resolves in 49 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

99.9%

24h Change

+85.5 pp

Signal Score

61/100

Data Confidence

Medium (70)

24h probability rose 85.5pp

Market data

Updated 2 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-13 02:21 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $16,322
Medium data confidence (70)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

99.9%

24h Change

+85.5 pp

7d Change

Only 5d of listing history

Coverage

5d of stored history

125 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 13, 02:15 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/13/2026, 2:15:00 AM	99.9%
8/13/2026, 2:00:00 AM	99.9%
8/13/2026, 1:00:00 AM	99.9%
8/13/2026, 12:00:00 AM	99.9%
8/12/2026, 11:00:00 PM	99.0%
8/12/2026, 10:45:00 PM	98.2%
8/12/2026, 10:00:00 PM	94.8%
8/12/2026, 9:00:00 PM	88.0%
8/12/2026, 8:00:00 PM	87.9%
8/12/2026, 7:00:00 PM	78.6%
8/12/2026, 6:00:00 PM	70.0%
8/12/2026, 5:00:00 PM	56.8%
8/12/2026, 4:00:00 PM	25.6%
8/12/2026, 3:00:00 PM	20.4%
8/12/2026, 2:00:00 PM	22.0%
8/12/2026, 1:00:00 PM	16.9%
8/12/2026, 12:00:00 PM	15.4%
8/12/2026, 11:00:00 AM	16.2%
8/12/2026, 10:00:00 AM	16.7%
8/12/2026, 9:00:00 AM	17.0%
8/12/2026, 8:00:00 AM	17.1%
8/12/2026, 7:00:00 AM	16.1%
8/12/2026, 6:00:00 AM	13.4%
8/12/2026, 5:00:00 AM	15.6%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Only 5d of listing history

24h Volume

$113.5K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$16.3K

Market Significance

High (71)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 49 days

End Date

Sep 30, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 61/100.

Probability Momentum 100

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 84

Persistence 20

Data Confidence Medium (70)

Next Steps

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