Will Kai and Speed have between 50 and 69 total in-game deaths during their Minecraft marathon?

Open · Resolves in 49 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

0.2%

24h Change

-32.9 pp

Signal Score

60/100

Data Confidence

Medium (69)

24h probability fell 32.9pp

Market data

Updated 2 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-13 02:21 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Low liquidity ($4,222)
Medium data confidence (69)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

0.2%

24h Change

-32.9 pp

7d Change

Only 5d of listing history

Coverage

5d of stored history

124 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 13, 02:15 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/13/2026, 2:15:00 AM	0.2%
8/13/2026, 2:00:00 AM	0.2%
8/13/2026, 1:00:00 AM	0.2%
8/13/2026, 12:00:00 AM	0.2%
8/12/2026, 11:00:00 PM	0.5%
8/12/2026, 10:00:00 PM	4.7%
8/12/2026, 9:00:00 PM	5.7%
8/12/2026, 8:00:00 PM	6.6%
8/12/2026, 7:00:00 PM	7.8%
8/12/2026, 6:00:00 PM	23.6%
8/12/2026, 5:00:00 PM	33.7%
8/12/2026, 4:00:00 PM	51.4%
8/12/2026, 3:00:00 PM	50.7%
8/12/2026, 2:00:00 PM	48.1%
8/12/2026, 1:00:00 PM	48.7%
8/12/2026, 12:00:00 PM	48.5%
8/12/2026, 11:00:00 AM	45.7%
8/12/2026, 10:00:00 AM	45.0%
8/12/2026, 9:00:00 AM	44.6%
8/12/2026, 8:00:00 AM	45.0%
8/12/2026, 7:00:00 AM	43.0%
8/12/2026, 6:00:00 AM	40.6%
8/12/2026, 5:00:00 AM	40.6%
8/12/2026, 4:00:00 AM	43.0%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Only 5d of listing history

24h Volume

$70.9K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$4.2K

Market Significance

Moderate (66)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 49 days

End Date

Sep 30, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 60/100.

Probability Momentum 100

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 78

Persistence 20

Data Confidence Medium (69)

Next Steps

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