National Bank Open: Joao Fonseca vs Ben Shelton

Open · Resolves in 8 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

37.5%

24h Change

-9.0 pp

Signal Score

41/100

Data Confidence

Medium (68)

24h probability fell 9.0pp

Market data

Updated 49 minutes ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-09 22:35 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $448,806
Medium data confidence (68)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

37.5%

24h Change

-9.0 pp

7d Change

Only 1d of listing history

Coverage

2d of stored history

44 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 9, 10:30 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/9/2026, 10:30:00 PM	37.5%
8/9/2026, 10:00:00 PM	45.5%
8/9/2026, 9:00:00 PM	44.5%
8/9/2026, 8:30:00 PM	44.5%
8/9/2026, 8:00:00 PM	45.5%
8/9/2026, 7:00:00 PM	46.5%
8/9/2026, 6:00:00 PM	46.5%
8/9/2026, 5:00:00 PM	46.5%
8/9/2026, 4:00:00 PM	47.5%
8/9/2026, 3:00:00 PM	47.5%
8/9/2026, 2:00:00 PM	47.5%
8/9/2026, 1:00:00 PM	47.5%
8/9/2026, 12:00:00 PM	46.5%
8/9/2026, 11:00:00 AM	46.5%
8/9/2026, 10:00:00 AM	45.5%
8/9/2026, 9:00:00 AM	45.5%
8/9/2026, 8:00:00 AM	45.5%
8/9/2026, 7:00:00 AM	45.5%
8/9/2026, 6:00:00 AM	45.5%
8/9/2026, 5:00:00 AM	45.5%
8/9/2026, 4:00:00 AM	45.5%
8/9/2026, 3:00:00 AM	45.5%
8/9/2026, 2:00:00 AM	45.5%
8/9/2026, 1:00:00 AM	46.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-7.0 pp

7d Change

Only 1d of listing history

24h Volume

$375.8K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$448.8K

Market Significance

High (77)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 8 days

End Date

Aug 17, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 41/100.

Probability Momentum 30

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 96

Persistence 87

Data Confidence Medium (68)

Next Steps

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