National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Thiago Agustin Tirante

Open · Resolves in 8 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

100.0%

24h Change

+31.4 pp

Signal Score

74/100

Data Confidence

Medium (69)

24h probability rose 31.4pp

Market data

Updated 2 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-09 20:38 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $463,840
Medium data confidence (69)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

100.0%

24h Change

+31.4 pp

7d Change

Only 1d of listing history

Coverage

2d of stored history

44 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 9, 08:30 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/9/2026, 8:30:00 PM	100.0%
8/9/2026, 8:00:00 PM	84.0%
8/9/2026, 7:00:00 PM	67.5%
8/9/2026, 6:45:00 PM	68.5%
8/9/2026, 6:00:00 PM	67.5%
8/9/2026, 5:00:00 PM	68.5%
8/9/2026, 4:30:00 PM	69.5%
8/9/2026, 4:00:00 PM	69.5%
8/9/2026, 3:00:00 PM	69.5%
8/9/2026, 2:30:00 PM	69.5%
8/9/2026, 2:00:00 PM	69.5%
8/9/2026, 1:00:00 PM	69.5%
8/9/2026, 12:00:00 PM	68.5%
8/9/2026, 11:00:00 AM	68.5%
8/9/2026, 10:00:00 AM	68.5%
8/9/2026, 9:00:00 AM	68.5%
8/9/2026, 8:00:00 AM	68.5%
8/9/2026, 7:00:00 AM	68.5%
8/9/2026, 6:00:00 AM	68.5%
8/9/2026, 5:00:00 AM	68.5%
8/9/2026, 4:00:00 AM	68.5%
8/9/2026, 3:00:00 AM	68.5%
8/9/2026, 2:00:00 AM	68.5%
8/9/2026, 1:00:00 AM	68.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+32.5 pp

7d Change

Only 1d of listing history

24h Volume

$577.0K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$463.8K

Market Significance

High (78)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 8 days

End Date

Aug 17, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 74/100.

Probability Momentum 100

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 98

Persistence 98

Data Confidence Medium (69)

Next Steps

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