Istanbul 2: Lucas Poullain vs Ilia Simakin

Open · Resolves in 7 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

47.5%

24h Change

+8.0 pp

Signal Score

35/100

Data Confidence

Medium (65)

24h probability rose 8.0pp

Market data

Updated 4 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-09 18:47 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $236,114
Medium data confidence (65)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

47.5%

24h Change

+8.0 pp

7d Change

Only 1d of listing history

Coverage

1d of stored history

27 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 9, 06:45 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/9/2026, 6:45:00 PM	47.5%
8/9/2026, 6:00:00 PM	45.5%
8/9/2026, 5:00:00 PM	25.5%
8/9/2026, 4:00:00 PM	32.0%
8/9/2026, 3:00:00 PM	32.5%
8/9/2026, 2:00:00 PM	32.5%
8/9/2026, 1:00:00 PM	32.5%
8/9/2026, 12:00:00 PM	32.5%
8/9/2026, 11:00:00 AM	32.5%
8/9/2026, 10:00:00 AM	32.5%
8/9/2026, 9:00:00 AM	32.5%
8/9/2026, 8:00:00 AM	32.5%
8/9/2026, 7:00:00 AM	32.5%
8/9/2026, 6:00:00 AM	32.5%
8/9/2026, 5:00:00 AM	32.5%
8/9/2026, 4:00:00 AM	32.5%
8/9/2026, 3:00:00 AM	32.5%
8/9/2026, 2:00:00 AM	32.5%
8/9/2026, 1:00:00 AM	32.5%
8/9/2026, 12:00:00 AM	33.5%
8/8/2026, 11:00:00 PM	34.5%
8/8/2026, 10:00:00 PM	34.0%
8/8/2026, 9:00:00 PM	34.0%
8/8/2026, 8:00:00 PM	35.0%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+22.0 pp

7d Change

Only 1d of listing history

24h Volume

$104.3K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$236.1K

Market Significance

High (74)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 7 days

End Date

Aug 16, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 35/100.

Probability Momentum 27

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 90

Persistence 62

Data Confidence Medium (65)

Next Steps

Keep exploring radar picks or open the full market catalog.

Back to radar Browse all markets View on Polymarket ↗