Astana: Vadym Ursu vs Manoj Dhamne Manas

Open · Resolves in 5 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

0.1%

24h Change

-30.9 pp

Signal Score

70/100

Data Confidence

Medium (66)

24h probability fell 30.9pp

Market data

Updated 1 day ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-11 07:14 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $323,535
Medium data confidence (66)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

0.1%

24h Change

-30.9 pp

7d Change

Only 4d of listing history

Coverage

3d of stored history

63 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 11, 07:00 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/11/2026, 7:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/11/2026, 6:00:00 AM	20.5%
8/11/2026, 5:00:00 AM	39.0%
8/11/2026, 4:00:00 AM	36.5%
8/11/2026, 3:00:00 AM	37.0%
8/11/2026, 2:00:00 AM	37.5%
8/11/2026, 1:00:00 AM	37.5%
8/11/2026, 12:00:00 AM	37.5%
8/10/2026, 11:00:00 PM	34.5%
8/10/2026, 10:00:00 PM	34.5%
8/10/2026, 9:00:00 PM	34.5%
8/10/2026, 8:00:00 PM	33.5%
8/10/2026, 7:00:00 PM	33.5%
8/10/2026, 6:00:00 PM	33.5%
8/10/2026, 5:00:00 PM	33.5%
8/10/2026, 4:00:00 PM	33.5%
8/10/2026, 3:00:00 PM	33.5%
8/10/2026, 2:00:00 PM	32.5%
8/10/2026, 1:00:00 PM	32.5%
8/10/2026, 12:00:00 PM	32.5%
8/10/2026, 11:00:00 AM	32.5%
8/10/2026, 10:00:00 AM	31.5%
8/10/2026, 9:00:00 AM	31.5%
8/10/2026, 8:00:00 AM	31.0%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-20.4 pp

7d Change

Only 4d of listing history

24h Volume

$65.9K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$323.5K

Market Significance

High (72)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 5 days

End Date

Aug 17, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 70/100.

Probability Momentum 100

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 88

Persistence 80

Data Confidence Medium (66)

Next Steps

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