Bitcoin Up or Down on August 10?
Current Probability
43.5%
24h Change
-7.0 pp
Signal Score
30/100
Data Confidence
Medium (62)
24h probability fell 7.0pp
Why This Signal Matters
Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.
- Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
- Liquidity depth $33,895
- Medium data confidence (62)
Probability History
Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.
Current
43.5%
24h Change
-7.0 pp
7d Change
Only 1d of listing history
Coverage
1d of stored history
View history table
| Time | Probability |
|---|---|
| 8/9/2026, 10:30:00 PM | 43.5% |
| 8/9/2026, 10:00:00 PM | 48.0% |
| 8/9/2026, 9:00:00 PM | 44.5% |
| 8/9/2026, 8:00:00 PM | 45.5% |
| 8/9/2026, 7:00:00 PM | 47.5% |
| 8/9/2026, 6:00:00 PM | 46.5% |
| 8/9/2026, 5:00:00 PM | 49.5% |
| 8/9/2026, 4:00:00 PM | 47.5% |
| 8/9/2026, 3:00:00 PM | 44.0% |
| 8/9/2026, 2:00:00 PM | 50.0% |
| 8/9/2026, 1:00:00 PM | 50.5% |
| 8/9/2026, 12:00:00 PM | 50.5% |
| 8/9/2026, 11:00:00 AM | 50.5% |
| 8/9/2026, 10:00:00 AM | 50.5% |
| 8/9/2026, 9:00:00 AM | 50.5% |
| 8/9/2026, 8:00:00 AM | 50.5% |
| 8/9/2026, 7:00:00 AM | 50.5% |
| 8/9/2026, 6:00:00 AM | 50.5% |
| 8/9/2026, 5:00:00 AM | 50.5% |
| 8/9/2026, 4:00:00 AM | 50.5% |
| 8/9/2026, 3:00:00 AM | 50.5% |
| 8/9/2026, 2:00:00 AM | 50.5% |
| 8/9/2026, 1:00:00 AM | 50.5% |
| 8/9/2026, 12:00:00 AM | 50.5% |
Market Snapshot
Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.
1h Change
-1.0 pp
7d Change
Only 1d of listing history
24h Volume
$55.6K
Volume vs Baseline
Baseline unavailable
Liquidity
$33.9K
Market Significance
Moderate (69)
Market Status
Open · Resolves in 1 day
End Date
Aug 10, 2026
Attention Score
24
Signal Quality Breakdown
Components behind the hero Signal Score of 30/100.
Probability Momentum
Strength of recent probability movement 23
Volume Activity
Trading activity versus the recent baseline 0
Liquidity Quality
Depth available to absorb orders without large price impact 84
Persistence
Whether the move holds across more than one lookback window 49
Data Confidence
Independent quality score for history coverage and data reliability Medium (62)