Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 10 to August 12, 2026?

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Current Probability

0.1%

24h Change

-30.4 pp

Signal Score

62/100

Data Confidence

High (71)

24h probability fell 30.4pp

Market data

Updated 9 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-12 19:06 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $139,487
High data confidence (70)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

0.1%

24h Change

-30.4 pp

7d Change

Only 4d of listing history

Coverage

4d of stored history

99 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 12, 07:00 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/12/2026, 7:00:00 PM	0.1%
8/12/2026, 6:00:00 PM	0.1%
8/12/2026, 5:00:00 PM	0.1%
8/12/2026, 4:00:00 PM	0.1%
8/12/2026, 3:00:00 PM	4.5%
8/12/2026, 2:00:00 PM	12.5%
8/12/2026, 1:00:00 PM	13.5%
8/12/2026, 12:00:00 PM	14.5%
8/12/2026, 11:00:00 AM	15.5%
8/12/2026, 10:00:00 AM	12.5%
8/12/2026, 9:00:00 AM	14.5%
8/12/2026, 8:00:00 AM	15.5%
8/12/2026, 7:00:00 AM	27.5%
8/12/2026, 6:00:00 AM	15.5%
8/12/2026, 5:00:00 AM	15.5%
8/12/2026, 4:00:00 AM	20.5%
8/12/2026, 3:00:00 AM	21.5%
8/12/2026, 2:00:00 AM	22.5%
8/12/2026, 1:00:00 AM	27.5%
8/12/2026, 12:00:00 AM	30.5%
8/11/2026, 11:00:00 PM	36.0%
8/11/2026, 10:00:00 PM	36.5%
8/11/2026, 9:00:00 PM	40.5%
8/11/2026, 8:00:00 PM	42.0%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Only 4d of listing history

24h Volume

$99.3K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$139.5K

Market Significance

High (81)

Market Status

Closed

End Date

Aug 12, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 62/100.

Probability Momentum 100

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 90

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (71)

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