Todi: Maxim Mrva vs Pierluigi Basile

Open · Resolves in 7 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

75.0%

24h Change

+14.5 pp

Signal Score

50/100

Data Confidence

Medium (69)

24h probability rose 14.5pp

Market data

Updated 1 hour ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-10 19:03 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $324,447
Medium data confidence (69)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

75.0%

24h Change

+14.5 pp

7d Change

Only 1d of listing history

Coverage

2d of stored history

45 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 10, 07:00 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/10/2026, 7:00:00 PM	75.0%
8/10/2026, 6:00:00 PM	60.5%
8/10/2026, 5:00:00 PM	60.5%
8/10/2026, 4:00:00 PM	58.5%
8/10/2026, 3:00:00 PM	58.5%
8/10/2026, 2:00:00 PM	58.5%
8/10/2026, 1:00:00 PM	56.5%
8/10/2026, 12:00:00 PM	55.5%
8/10/2026, 11:00:00 AM	55.5%
8/10/2026, 10:00:00 AM	57.5%
8/10/2026, 9:00:00 AM	58.5%
8/10/2026, 8:00:00 AM	58.5%
8/10/2026, 7:00:00 AM	59.5%
8/10/2026, 6:00:00 AM	59.5%
8/10/2026, 5:00:00 AM	59.5%
8/10/2026, 4:00:00 AM	59.5%
8/10/2026, 3:00:00 AM	59.5%
8/10/2026, 2:00:00 AM	59.5%
8/10/2026, 1:00:00 AM	59.5%
8/10/2026, 12:00:00 AM	59.5%
8/9/2026, 11:00:00 PM	59.5%
8/9/2026, 10:00:00 PM	59.5%
8/9/2026, 9:00:00 PM	60.5%
8/9/2026, 8:00:00 PM	60.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+14.5 pp

7d Change

Only 1d of listing history

24h Volume

$103.2K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$324.4K

Market Significance

High (74)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 7 days

End Date

Aug 17, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 50/100.

Probability Momentum 48

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 90

Persistence 100

Data Confidence Medium (69)

Next Steps

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