Hamburg: Rudolf Molleker vs Elmer Moeller

Open · Resolves in 5 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

100.0%

24h Change

+72.0 pp

Signal Score

67/100

Data Confidence

Medium (64)

24h probability rose 72.0pp

Market data

Updated 1 day ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-11 13:14 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $45,103
Medium data confidence (64)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

100.0%

24h Change

+72.0 pp

7d Change

Only 4d of listing history

Coverage

2d of stored history

57 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 11, 01:00 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/11/2026, 1:00:00 PM	100.0%
8/11/2026, 12:00:00 PM	73.5%
8/11/2026, 11:00:00 AM	28.5%
8/11/2026, 10:00:00 AM	28.5%
8/11/2026, 9:00:00 AM	28.5%
8/11/2026, 8:00:00 AM	28.5%
8/11/2026, 7:00:00 AM	28.5%
8/11/2026, 6:00:00 AM	28.5%
8/11/2026, 5:00:00 AM	27.5%
8/11/2026, 4:00:00 AM	27.5%
8/11/2026, 3:00:00 AM	27.5%
8/11/2026, 2:00:00 AM	27.5%
8/11/2026, 1:00:00 AM	27.5%
8/11/2026, 12:00:00 AM	27.5%
8/10/2026, 11:00:00 PM	27.5%
8/10/2026, 10:00:00 PM	27.5%
8/10/2026, 9:00:00 PM	27.5%
8/10/2026, 8:00:00 PM	27.5%
8/10/2026, 7:00:00 PM	27.5%
8/10/2026, 6:00:00 PM	27.5%
8/10/2026, 5:00:00 PM	27.5%
8/10/2026, 4:00:00 PM	27.5%
8/10/2026, 3:00:00 PM	28.0%
8/10/2026, 2:00:00 PM	27.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+26.5 pp

7d Change

Only 4d of listing history

24h Volume

$76.1K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$45.1K

Market Significance

High (71)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 5 days

End Date

Aug 17, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 67/100.

Probability Momentum 100

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 86

Persistence 62

Data Confidence Medium (64)

Next Steps

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