Hamburg: Cezar Cretu vs Marvin Moeller

Open · Resolves in 7 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

34.4%

24h Change

-12.1 pp

Signal Score

34/100

Data Confidence

Medium (60)

24h probability fell 12.1pp

Market data

Updated 3 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-10 15:03 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $235,884
Medium data confidence (60)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

34.4%

24h Change

-12.1 pp

7d Change

Only 1d of listing history

Coverage

1d of stored history

35 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 10, 03:00 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/10/2026, 3:00:00 PM	34.4%
8/10/2026, 2:00:00 PM	16.5%
8/10/2026, 1:00:00 PM	38.5%
8/10/2026, 12:00:00 PM	41.5%
8/10/2026, 11:00:00 AM	42.5%
8/10/2026, 10:00:00 AM	46.5%
8/10/2026, 9:00:00 AM	46.5%
8/10/2026, 8:00:00 AM	46.5%
8/10/2026, 7:00:00 AM	48.5%
8/10/2026, 6:00:00 AM	48.5%
8/10/2026, 5:00:00 AM	47.5%
8/10/2026, 4:00:00 AM	47.5%
8/10/2026, 3:00:00 AM	47.5%
8/10/2026, 2:00:00 AM	47.5%
8/10/2026, 1:00:00 AM	47.5%
8/10/2026, 12:00:00 AM	47.5%
8/9/2026, 11:00:00 PM	48.0%
8/9/2026, 10:00:00 PM	48.0%
8/9/2026, 9:00:00 PM	47.5%
8/9/2026, 8:00:00 PM	48.0%
8/9/2026, 7:00:00 PM	50.5%
8/9/2026, 6:00:00 PM	47.5%
8/9/2026, 5:00:00 PM	47.5%
8/9/2026, 4:00:00 PM	46.0%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+17.9 pp

7d Change

Only 1d of listing history

24h Volume

$320.8K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$235.9K

Market Significance

High (76)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 7 days

End Date

Aug 17, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 34/100.

Probability Momentum 40

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 95

Persistence 10

Data Confidence Medium (60)

Next Steps

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