National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Arthur Fils

Open · Resolves in 8 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

53.5%

24h Change

+3.0 pp

Signal Score

21/100

Data Confidence

Medium (61)

24h probability rose 3.0pp

Market data

Updated 3 minutes ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-10 19:03 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $370,688
Medium data confidence (61)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

53.5%

24h Change

+3.0 pp

7d Change

Only 1d of listing history

Coverage

2d of stored history

41 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 10, 07:00 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/10/2026, 7:00:00 PM	53.5%
8/10/2026, 6:00:00 PM	53.5%
8/10/2026, 5:00:00 PM	53.5%
8/10/2026, 4:45:00 PM	53.5%
8/10/2026, 4:00:00 PM	53.5%
8/10/2026, 3:00:00 PM	54.5%
8/10/2026, 2:00:00 PM	54.5%
8/10/2026, 1:00:00 PM	54.5%
8/10/2026, 12:00:00 PM	53.5%
8/10/2026, 11:00:00 AM	53.5%
8/10/2026, 10:00:00 AM	53.5%
8/10/2026, 9:00:00 AM	53.5%
8/10/2026, 8:00:00 AM	53.5%
8/10/2026, 7:45:00 AM	53.5%
8/10/2026, 7:00:00 AM	53.5%
8/10/2026, 6:00:00 AM	51.5%
8/10/2026, 5:00:00 AM	51.5%
8/10/2026, 4:00:00 AM	51.5%
8/10/2026, 3:00:00 AM	51.5%
8/10/2026, 2:00:00 AM	50.5%
8/10/2026, 1:00:00 AM	50.5%
8/10/2026, 12:00:00 AM	50.5%
8/9/2026, 11:00:00 PM	50.5%
8/9/2026, 10:00:00 PM	50.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Only 1d of listing history

24h Volume

$150.2K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$370.7K

Market Significance

High (75)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 8 days

End Date

Aug 18, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 21/100.

Probability Momentum 10

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 92

Persistence 20

Data Confidence Medium (61)

Next Steps

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