Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 11?

Open · Resolves in 1 day View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

0.1%

24h Change

-1.3 pp

Signal Score

18/100

Data Confidence

Medium (60)

24h probability fell 1.2pp

Market data

Updated 18 minutes ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-11 07:14 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $38,779
Medium data confidence (60)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

0.1%

24h Change

-1.3 pp

7d Change

Only 2d of listing history

Coverage

2d of stored history

51 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 11, 07:00 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/11/2026, 7:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/11/2026, 6:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/11/2026, 5:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/11/2026, 4:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/11/2026, 3:00:00 AM	0.6%
8/11/2026, 2:00:00 AM	0.9%
8/11/2026, 1:00:00 AM	1.8%
8/11/2026, 12:00:00 AM	0.8%
8/10/2026, 11:00:00 PM	0.1%
8/10/2026, 10:00:00 PM	1.1%
8/10/2026, 9:00:00 PM	1.3%
8/10/2026, 8:00:00 PM	1.6%
8/10/2026, 7:00:00 PM	1.3%
8/10/2026, 6:00:00 PM	1.3%
8/10/2026, 5:00:00 PM	1.3%
8/10/2026, 4:00:00 PM	1.5%
8/10/2026, 3:00:00 PM	1.6%
8/10/2026, 2:00:00 PM	3.5%
8/10/2026, 1:00:00 PM	3.5%
8/10/2026, 12:00:00 PM	5.7%
8/10/2026, 11:00:00 AM	1.5%
8/10/2026, 10:00:00 AM	1.3%
8/10/2026, 9:00:00 AM	1.4%
8/10/2026, 8:00:00 AM	1.4%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Only 2d of listing history

24h Volume

$61.0K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$38.8K

Market Significance

Moderate (69)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 1 day

End Date

Aug 11, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 18/100.

Probability Momentum 4

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 85

Persistence 20

Data Confidence Medium (60)

Next Steps

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