Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 11?

Closed View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

0.1%

24h Change

-10.4 pp

Signal Score

32/100

Data Confidence

Medium (61)

24h probability fell 10.4pp

Market data

Updated 1 day ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-11 15:02 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $95,288
Medium data confidence (61)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

0.1%

24h Change

-10.4 pp

7d Change

Only 4d of listing history

Coverage

2d of stored history

60 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 11, 03:00 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/11/2026, 3:00:00 PM	0.1%
8/11/2026, 2:00:00 PM	0.1%
8/11/2026, 1:00:00 PM	0.1%
8/11/2026, 12:00:00 PM	0.1%
8/11/2026, 11:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/11/2026, 10:45:00 AM	0.1%
8/11/2026, 10:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/11/2026, 9:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/11/2026, 8:00:00 AM	0.4%
8/11/2026, 7:00:00 AM	1.5%
8/11/2026, 6:00:00 AM	62.5%
8/11/2026, 5:00:00 AM	34.0%
8/11/2026, 4:00:00 AM	15.5%
8/11/2026, 3:00:00 AM	25.5%
8/11/2026, 2:00:00 AM	27.5%
8/11/2026, 1:00:00 AM	10.0%
8/11/2026, 12:00:00 AM	8.0%
8/10/2026, 11:00:00 PM	6.0%
8/10/2026, 10:00:00 PM	7.0%
8/10/2026, 9:00:00 PM	7.0%
8/10/2026, 8:00:00 PM	7.5%
8/10/2026, 7:00:00 PM	9.5%
8/10/2026, 6:00:00 PM	8.5%
8/10/2026, 5:00:00 PM	5.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Only 4d of listing history

24h Volume

$133.4K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$95.3K

Market Significance

High (81)

Market Status

Closed

End Date

Aug 11, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 32/100.

Probability Momentum 35

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 91

Persistence 20

Data Confidence Medium (61)

Next Steps

Keep exploring radar picks or open the full market catalog.

Back to radar Browse all markets View on Polymarket ↗