Bitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET

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Current Probability

2.7%

24h Change

-47.3 pp

Signal Score

64/100

Data Confidence

Medium (61)

24h probability fell 47.3pp

Market data

Updated 7 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-10 11:12 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $5,973
Medium data confidence (61)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

2.7%

24h Change

-47.3 pp

7d Change

Only 1d of listing history

Coverage

1d of stored history

27 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 10, 11:00 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/10/2026, 11:00:00 AM	2.7%
8/10/2026, 10:00:00 AM	9.5%
8/10/2026, 9:00:00 AM	56.5%
8/10/2026, 8:00:00 AM	47.0%
8/10/2026, 7:00:00 AM	46.5%
8/10/2026, 6:00:00 AM	48.5%
8/10/2026, 5:00:00 AM	48.5%
8/10/2026, 4:00:00 AM	48.5%
8/10/2026, 3:00:00 AM	48.5%
8/10/2026, 2:00:00 AM	48.5%
8/10/2026, 1:00:00 AM	48.5%
8/10/2026, 12:00:00 AM	48.5%
8/9/2026, 11:00:00 PM	48.5%
8/9/2026, 10:00:00 PM	50.5%
8/9/2026, 9:00:00 PM	50.5%
8/9/2026, 8:00:00 PM	50.5%
8/9/2026, 7:00:00 PM	50.5%
8/9/2026, 6:00:00 PM	50.5%
8/9/2026, 5:00:00 PM	50.5%
8/9/2026, 4:00:00 PM	50.0%
8/9/2026, 3:00:00 PM	50.0%
8/9/2026, 2:00:00 PM	50.0%
8/9/2026, 1:00:00 PM	50.0%
8/9/2026, 12:00:00 PM	50.0%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-6.8 pp

7d Change

Only 1d of listing history

24h Volume

$31.4K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$6.0K

Market Significance

Moderate (63)

Market Status

Closed

End Date

Aug 10, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 64/100.

Probability Momentum 100

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 75

Persistence 49

Data Confidence Medium (61)

Next Steps

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