Bitcoin Up or Down on August 11?

Open · Resolves in 1 day View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

28.5%

24h Change

-21.5 pp

Signal Score

52/100

Data Confidence

Medium (62)

24h probability fell 21.5pp

Market data

Updated 18 minutes ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-11 07:14 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $32,976
Medium data confidence (62)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

28.5%

24h Change

-21.5 pp

7d Change

Only 1d of listing history

Coverage

2d of stored history

39 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 11, 07:00 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/11/2026, 7:00:00 AM	28.5%
8/11/2026, 6:00:00 AM	31.5%
8/11/2026, 5:00:00 AM	35.5%
8/11/2026, 4:00:00 AM	42.5%
8/11/2026, 3:00:00 AM	38.0%
8/11/2026, 2:00:00 AM	38.5%
8/11/2026, 1:00:00 AM	38.5%
8/11/2026, 12:00:00 AM	37.0%
8/10/2026, 11:00:00 PM	39.5%
8/10/2026, 10:00:00 PM	38.5%
8/10/2026, 9:00:00 PM	46.5%
8/10/2026, 8:00:00 PM	41.5%
8/10/2026, 7:00:00 PM	33.5%
8/10/2026, 6:00:00 PM	37.5%
8/10/2026, 5:00:00 PM	37.0%
8/10/2026, 4:00:00 PM	47.0%
8/10/2026, 3:00:00 PM	45.0%
8/10/2026, 2:00:00 PM	50.5%
8/10/2026, 1:00:00 PM	50.0%
8/10/2026, 12:00:00 PM	50.0%
8/10/2026, 11:00:00 AM	50.0%
8/10/2026, 10:00:00 AM	50.0%
8/10/2026, 9:00:00 AM	50.0%
8/10/2026, 8:00:00 AM	50.0%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-3.0 pp

7d Change

Only 1d of listing history

24h Volume

$51.9K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$33.0K

Market Significance

Moderate (69)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 1 day

End Date

Aug 11, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 52/100.

Probability Momentum 72

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 83

Persistence 48

Data Confidence Medium (62)

Next Steps

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