Ethereum Up or Down on August 11?

Closed View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

35.0%

24h Change

-15.0 pp

Signal Score

43/100

Data Confidence

Medium (62)

24h probability fell 15.0pp

Market data

Updated 1 day ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-11 15:02 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Low liquidity ($4,466)
Medium data confidence (62)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

35.0%

24h Change

-15.0 pp

7d Change

Only 3d of listing history

Coverage

2d of stored history

47 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 11, 03:00 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/11/2026, 3:00:00 PM	35.0%
8/11/2026, 2:00:00 PM	86.5%
8/11/2026, 1:00:00 PM	81.5%
8/11/2026, 12:00:00 PM	87.0%
8/11/2026, 11:00:00 AM	75.0%
8/11/2026, 10:00:00 AM	72.0%
8/11/2026, 9:00:00 AM	59.5%
8/11/2026, 8:00:00 AM	53.5%
8/11/2026, 7:00:00 AM	44.5%
8/11/2026, 6:00:00 AM	46.5%
8/11/2026, 5:00:00 AM	50.5%
8/11/2026, 4:00:00 AM	60.5%
8/11/2026, 3:00:00 AM	55.5%
8/11/2026, 2:00:00 AM	54.5%
8/11/2026, 1:00:00 AM	46.5%
8/11/2026, 12:00:00 AM	43.5%
8/10/2026, 11:00:00 PM	50.0%
8/10/2026, 10:00:00 PM	47.5%
8/10/2026, 9:00:00 PM	55.5%
8/10/2026, 8:00:00 PM	53.0%
8/10/2026, 7:00:00 PM	45.0%
8/10/2026, 6:00:00 PM	47.0%
8/10/2026, 5:00:00 PM	45.5%
8/10/2026, 4:00:00 PM	47.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-51.5 pp

7d Change

Only 3d of listing history

24h Volume

$61.6K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$4.5K

Market Significance

Moderate (64)

Market Status

Closed

End Date

Aug 11, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 43/100.

Probability Momentum 50

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 77

Persistence 57

Data Confidence Medium (62)

Next Steps

Keep exploring radar picks or open the full market catalog.

Back to radar Browse all markets View on Polymarket ↗