S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 11?

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Current Probability

0.1%

24h Change

-52.0 pp

Signal Score

64/100

Data Confidence

Medium (62)

24h probability fell 52.0pp

Market data

Updated 1 day ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-11 20:50 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $67,342
Medium data confidence (62)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

0.1%

24h Change

-52.0 pp

7d Change

Only 2d of listing history

Coverage

1d of stored history

33 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 11, 08:45 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/11/2026, 8:45:00 PM	0.1%
8/11/2026, 8:00:00 PM	0.1%
8/11/2026, 7:00:00 PM	1.3%
8/11/2026, 6:00:00 PM	8.0%
8/11/2026, 5:00:00 PM	11.5%
8/11/2026, 4:00:00 PM	28.5%
8/11/2026, 3:00:00 PM	64.5%
8/11/2026, 2:00:00 PM	61.0%
8/11/2026, 1:00:00 PM	67.5%
8/11/2026, 12:00:00 PM	68.5%
8/11/2026, 11:00:00 AM	65.5%
8/11/2026, 10:00:00 AM	55.0%
8/11/2026, 9:00:00 AM	50.5%
8/11/2026, 8:00:00 AM	54.0%
8/11/2026, 7:00:00 AM	52.0%
8/11/2026, 6:00:00 AM	59.0%
8/11/2026, 5:00:00 AM	66.0%
8/11/2026, 4:00:00 AM	65.5%
8/11/2026, 3:00:00 AM	63.0%
8/11/2026, 2:00:00 AM	63.5%
8/11/2026, 1:00:00 AM	59.0%
8/11/2026, 12:00:00 AM	51.0%
8/10/2026, 11:00:00 PM	50.5%
8/10/2026, 10:00:00 PM	51.0%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-1.3 pp

7d Change

Only 2d of listing history

24h Volume

$71.6K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$67.3K

Market Significance

High (79)

Market Status

Closed

End Date

Aug 11, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 64/100.

Probability Momentum 100

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 87

Persistence 41

Data Confidence Medium (62)

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