Hamburg: Jamie Mackenzie vs Jan Kumstat

Open · Resolves in 6 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

0.1%

24h Change

-32.5 pp

Signal Score

73/100

Data Confidence

Medium (69)

24h probability fell 32.5pp

Market data

Updated 1 day ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-11 17:01 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $683,414
Medium data confidence (69)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

0.1%

24h Change

-32.5 pp

7d Change

Only 2d of listing history

Coverage

1d of stored history

25 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 11, 05:00 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/11/2026, 5:00:00 PM	0.1%
8/11/2026, 4:00:00 PM	34.0%
8/11/2026, 3:00:00 PM	36.5%
8/11/2026, 2:00:00 PM	36.5%
8/11/2026, 1:00:00 PM	36.5%
8/11/2026, 12:00:00 PM	37.5%
8/11/2026, 11:00:00 AM	40.5%
8/11/2026, 10:00:00 AM	40.5%
8/11/2026, 9:00:00 AM	40.5%
8/11/2026, 8:00:00 AM	41.5%
8/11/2026, 7:00:00 AM	41.5%
8/11/2026, 6:00:00 AM	41.5%
8/11/2026, 5:00:00 AM	41.5%
8/11/2026, 4:00:00 AM	38.5%
8/11/2026, 3:00:00 AM	38.5%
8/11/2026, 2:00:00 AM	38.5%
8/11/2026, 1:00:00 AM	38.5%
8/11/2026, 12:00:00 AM	38.5%
8/10/2026, 11:00:00 PM	38.5%
8/10/2026, 10:00:00 PM	39.5%
8/10/2026, 9:00:00 PM	40.0%
8/10/2026, 8:00:00 PM	35.5%
8/10/2026, 7:00:00 PM	35.0%
8/10/2026, 6:00:00 PM	34.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-34.0 pp

7d Change

Only 2d of listing history

24h Volume

$172.3K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$683.4K

Market Significance

High (75)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 6 days

End Date

Aug 18, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 73/100.

Probability Momentum 100

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 92

Persistence 97

Data Confidence Medium (69)

Next Steps

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