Astana: Lucio Ratti vs Khumoun Sultanov

Open · Resolves in 7 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

25.5%

24h Change

-15.5 pp

Signal Score

48/100

Data Confidence

Medium (66)

24h probability fell 15.5pp

Market data

Updated 21 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-12 07:39 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $147,341
Medium data confidence (66)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

25.5%

24h Change

-15.5 pp

7d Change

Only 2d of listing history

Coverage

2d of stored history

40 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 12, 07:30 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/12/2026, 7:30:00 AM	25.5%
8/12/2026, 7:00:00 AM	27.5%
8/12/2026, 6:00:00 AM	35.5%
8/12/2026, 5:00:00 AM	35.5%
8/12/2026, 4:00:00 AM	35.5%
8/12/2026, 3:00:00 AM	36.5%
8/12/2026, 2:00:00 AM	36.5%
8/12/2026, 1:00:00 AM	36.5%
8/12/2026, 12:00:00 AM	35.5%
8/11/2026, 11:00:00 PM	34.5%
8/11/2026, 10:00:00 PM	33.5%
8/11/2026, 9:00:00 PM	33.5%
8/11/2026, 8:00:00 PM	33.5%
8/11/2026, 7:00:00 PM	33.5%
8/11/2026, 6:00:00 PM	33.5%
8/11/2026, 5:00:00 PM	33.5%
8/11/2026, 4:00:00 PM	33.5%
8/11/2026, 3:00:00 PM	38.5%
8/11/2026, 2:00:00 PM	39.5%
8/11/2026, 1:00:00 PM	40.5%
8/11/2026, 12:00:00 PM	40.5%
8/11/2026, 11:00:00 AM	41.0%
8/11/2026, 10:00:00 AM	40.0%
8/11/2026, 9:00:00 AM	39.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-10.0 pp

7d Change

Only 2d of listing history

24h Volume

$67.1K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$147.3K

Market Significance

High (72)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 7 days

End Date

Aug 19, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 48/100.

Probability Momentum 52

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 88

Persistence 79

Data Confidence Medium (66)

Next Steps

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