Bitcoin Up or Down on August 12?

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Current Probability

0.1%

24h Change

-48.4 pp

Signal Score

65/100

Data Confidence

Medium (63)

24h probability fell 48.4pp

Market data

Updated 11 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-12 17:00 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $139,881
Medium data confidence (63)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

0.1%

24h Change

-48.4 pp

7d Change

Only 2d of listing history

Coverage

2d of stored history

55 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 12, 05:00 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/12/2026, 5:00:00 PM	0.1%
8/12/2026, 4:00:00 PM	0.5%
8/12/2026, 3:00:00 PM	20.5%
8/12/2026, 2:00:00 PM	78.5%
8/12/2026, 1:15:00 PM	81.5%
8/12/2026, 1:00:00 PM	86.5%
8/12/2026, 12:00:00 PM	85.5%
8/12/2026, 11:00:00 AM	85.5%
8/12/2026, 10:00:00 AM	84.0%
8/12/2026, 9:15:00 AM	67.5%
8/12/2026, 9:00:00 AM	66.5%
8/12/2026, 8:00:00 AM	65.5%
8/12/2026, 7:30:00 AM	62.5%
8/12/2026, 7:00:00 AM	58.5%
8/12/2026, 6:00:00 AM	68.5%
8/12/2026, 5:30:00 AM	68.5%
8/12/2026, 5:00:00 AM	63.0%
8/12/2026, 4:00:00 AM	65.5%
8/12/2026, 3:00:00 AM	61.0%
8/12/2026, 2:15:00 AM	65.5%
8/12/2026, 2:00:00 AM	64.5%
8/12/2026, 1:00:00 AM	59.5%
8/12/2026, 12:00:00 AM	53.0%
8/11/2026, 11:00:00 PM	57.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-0.5 pp

7d Change

Only 2d of listing history

24h Volume

$223.3K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$139.9K

Market Significance

High (83)

Market Status

Closed

End Date

Aug 12, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 65/100.

Probability Momentum 100

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 93

Persistence 41

Data Confidence Medium (63)

Next Steps

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