Hamburg: Raul Brancaccio vs Marvin Moeller

Open · Resolves in 7 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

47.5%

24h Change

+1.5 pp

Signal Score

18/100

Data Confidence

Medium (60)

24h probability rose 1.5pp

Market data

Updated 11 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-12 17:00 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $160,147
Medium data confidence (60)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

47.5%

24h Change

+1.5 pp

7d Change

Only 2d of listing history

Coverage

2d of stored history

43 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 12, 05:00 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/12/2026, 5:00:00 PM	47.5%
8/12/2026, 4:00:00 PM	58.5%
8/12/2026, 3:00:00 PM	53.5%
8/12/2026, 2:00:00 PM	55.0%
8/12/2026, 1:00:00 PM	40.0%
8/12/2026, 12:00:00 PM	42.5%
8/12/2026, 11:00:00 AM	43.5%
8/12/2026, 10:00:00 AM	43.5%
8/12/2026, 9:00:00 AM	43.5%
8/12/2026, 8:00:00 AM	43.0%
8/12/2026, 7:00:00 AM	42.5%
8/12/2026, 6:00:00 AM	42.5%
8/12/2026, 5:00:00 AM	46.5%
8/12/2026, 4:00:00 AM	46.5%
8/12/2026, 3:00:00 AM	46.5%
8/12/2026, 2:00:00 AM	46.5%
8/12/2026, 1:00:00 AM	46.5%
8/12/2026, 12:00:00 AM	46.5%
8/11/2026, 11:00:00 PM	46.5%
8/11/2026, 10:00:00 PM	46.5%
8/11/2026, 9:00:00 PM	46.5%
8/11/2026, 8:00:00 PM	46.5%
8/11/2026, 7:00:00 PM	45.5%
8/11/2026, 6:00:00 PM	45.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-11.0 pp

7d Change

Only 2d of listing history

24h Volume

$363.0K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$160.1K

Market Significance

High (77)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 7 days

End Date

Aug 19, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 18/100.

Probability Momentum 5

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 96

Persistence 10

Data Confidence Medium (60)

Next Steps

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