Hamburg: Niels McDonald vs Eduardo Ribeiro

Open · Resolves in 7 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

72.5%

24h Change

+14.0 pp

Signal Score

44/100

Data Confidence

Medium (65)

24h probability rose 14.0pp

Market data

Updated 16 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-12 13:19 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $195,441
Medium data confidence (65)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

72.5%

24h Change

+14.0 pp

7d Change

Only 2d of listing history

Coverage

2d of stored history

40 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 12, 01:15 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/12/2026, 1:15:00 PM	72.5%
8/12/2026, 1:00:00 PM	89.5%
8/12/2026, 12:00:00 PM	29.5%
8/12/2026, 11:00:00 AM	63.0%
8/12/2026, 10:00:00 AM	63.5%
8/12/2026, 9:00:00 AM	63.5%
8/12/2026, 8:00:00 AM	63.5%
8/12/2026, 7:00:00 AM	63.5%
8/12/2026, 6:00:00 AM	60.5%
8/12/2026, 5:00:00 AM	61.0%
8/12/2026, 4:00:00 AM	61.0%
8/12/2026, 3:00:00 AM	60.5%
8/12/2026, 2:00:00 AM	60.0%
8/12/2026, 1:00:00 AM	59.5%
8/12/2026, 12:00:00 AM	59.5%
8/11/2026, 11:00:00 PM	59.5%
8/11/2026, 10:00:00 PM	59.5%
8/11/2026, 9:00:00 PM	59.5%
8/11/2026, 8:00:00 PM	59.5%
8/11/2026, 7:00:00 PM	59.5%
8/11/2026, 6:00:00 PM	59.5%
8/11/2026, 5:00:00 PM	59.5%
8/11/2026, 4:00:00 PM	58.5%
8/11/2026, 3:00:00 PM	58.0%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+43.0 pp

7d Change

Only 2d of listing history

24h Volume

$297.3K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$195.4K

Market Significance

High (76)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 7 days

End Date

Aug 19, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 44/100.

Probability Momentum 47

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 95

Persistence 60

Data Confidence Medium (65)

Next Steps

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