Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?

Open · Resolves in 33 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

12.5%

24h Change

Unchanged

Signal Score

13/100

Data Confidence

Low (33)

Signal passed quality checks

Market data

Updated 21 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-12 07:39 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h history insufficient for probability change
Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $80,663

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

12.5%

24h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Only 2d of listing history

Coverage

22h of stored history

24 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 12, 07:30 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/12/2026, 7:30:00 AM	12.5%
8/12/2026, 7:00:00 AM	12.5%
8/12/2026, 6:00:00 AM	12.5%
8/12/2026, 5:30:00 AM	12.5%
8/12/2026, 5:00:00 AM	12.5%
8/12/2026, 4:00:00 AM	12.5%
8/12/2026, 3:00:00 AM	12.5%
8/12/2026, 2:00:00 AM	12.5%
8/12/2026, 1:00:00 AM	12.5%
8/12/2026, 12:00:00 AM	12.5%
8/11/2026, 11:00:00 PM	12.5%
8/11/2026, 10:00:00 PM	12.5%
8/11/2026, 9:00:00 PM	12.5%
8/11/2026, 8:00:00 PM	12.5%
8/11/2026, 7:00:00 PM	6.5%
8/11/2026, 6:00:00 PM	13.0%
8/11/2026, 5:00:00 PM	13.5%
8/11/2026, 4:00:00 PM	13.5%
8/11/2026, 3:00:00 PM	14.5%
8/11/2026, 2:00:00 PM	15.0%
8/11/2026, 1:00:00 PM	14.0%
8/11/2026, 12:00:00 PM	13.5%
8/11/2026, 11:00:00 AM	11.5%
8/11/2026, 10:00:00 AM	13.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Only 2d of listing history

24h Volume

$43.2K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$80.7K

Market Significance

High (72)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 33 days

End Date

Sep 15, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 13/100.

Probability Momentum 0

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 86

Persistence 0

Data Confidence Low (33)

Next Steps

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