Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?
Current Probability
0.1%
24h Change
-26.5 pp
Signal Score
86/100
Data Confidence
High (84)
24h probability fell 26.5pp; volume is 10.5x the prior 6-day daily average
Why This Signal Matters
Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.
- 24h probability fell 26.5pp
- 24h volume is 10.5x the prior 6-day daily average
- Liquidity depth $160,463
Probability History
Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.
Not enough history to chart yet (7d of stored history, 0 point s). Charts fill in after sync backfills CLOB history.
Browse other marketsCurrent
0.1%
24h Change
-26.5 pp
7d Change
Insufficient 7d price history
Coverage
7d of stored history
Market Snapshot
Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.
1h Change
-2.4 pp
7d Change
Insufficient 7d price history
24h Volume
$259.1K
Volume vs Baseline
10.5x baseline
Liquidity
$160.5K
Market Significance
High (76)
Market Status
Closed
End Date
Aug 21, 2026
Attention Score
95
Signal Quality Breakdown
Components behind the hero Signal Score of 86/100.