Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?
Current Probability
0.1%
24h Change
-11.3 pp
Signal Score
62/100
Data Confidence
High (83)
24h probability fell 11.3pp; volume is 5.1x the prior 6-day daily average
Why This Signal Matters
Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.
- 24h probability fell 11.3pp
- 24h volume is 5.1x the prior 6-day daily average
- Liquidity depth $84,616
Probability History
Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.
Not enough history to chart yet (7d of stored history, 0 point s). Charts fill in after sync backfills CLOB history.
Browse other marketsCurrent
0.1%
24h Change
-11.3 pp
7d Change
Insufficient 7d price history
Coverage
7d of stored history
Market Snapshot
Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.
1h Change
-0.1 pp
7d Change
Insufficient 7d price history
24h Volume
$216.4K
Volume vs Baseline
5.1x baseline
Liquidity
$84.6K
Market Significance
High (82)
Market Status
Closed
End Date
Aug 21, 2026
Attention Score
80
Signal Quality Breakdown
Components behind the hero Signal Score of 62/100.