Astana: Beibit Zhukayev vs Mert Alkaya

Open · Resolves in 7 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

0.1%

24h Change

-48.4 pp

Signal Score

67/100

Data Confidence

Medium (64)

24h probability fell 48.4pp

Market data

Updated 13 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-12 15:01 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $311,168
Medium data confidence (64)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

0.1%

24h Change

-48.4 pp

7d Change

Only 1d of listing history

Coverage

1d of stored history

29 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 12, 03:00 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/12/2026, 3:00:00 PM	0.1%
8/12/2026, 2:00:00 PM	12.5%
8/12/2026, 1:00:00 PM	40.5%
8/12/2026, 12:00:00 PM	40.5%
8/12/2026, 11:00:00 AM	40.5%
8/12/2026, 10:00:00 AM	40.5%
8/12/2026, 9:00:00 AM	39.5%
8/12/2026, 8:00:00 AM	39.5%
8/12/2026, 7:00:00 AM	39.5%
8/12/2026, 6:00:00 AM	39.5%
8/12/2026, 5:00:00 AM	39.5%
8/12/2026, 4:00:00 AM	39.5%
8/12/2026, 3:00:00 AM	39.5%
8/12/2026, 2:00:00 AM	39.0%
8/12/2026, 1:00:00 AM	39.5%
8/12/2026, 12:00:00 AM	38.5%
8/11/2026, 11:00:00 PM	38.5%
8/11/2026, 10:00:00 PM	38.5%
8/11/2026, 9:00:00 PM	39.5%
8/11/2026, 8:00:00 PM	43.5%
8/11/2026, 7:00:00 PM	43.5%
8/11/2026, 6:00:00 PM	45.5%
8/11/2026, 5:00:00 PM	45.5%
8/11/2026, 4:00:00 PM	45.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-12.4 pp

7d Change

Only 1d of listing history

24h Volume

$186.0K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$311.2K

Market Significance

High (75)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 7 days

End Date

Aug 19, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 67/100.

Probability Momentum 100

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 93

Persistence 55

Data Confidence Medium (64)

Next Steps

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