Bitcoin Up or Down on August 13?

Open · Resolves in 1 day View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

49.5%

24h Change

-1.0 pp

Signal Score

21/100

Data Confidence

Medium (62)

24h probability fell 1.0pp

Market data

Updated 2 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-13 02:21 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $22,788
Medium data confidence (62)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

49.5%

24h Change

-1.0 pp

7d Change

Only 1d of listing history

Coverage

1d of stored history

35 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 13, 02:15 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/13/2026, 2:15:00 AM	49.5%
8/13/2026, 2:00:00 AM	50.5%
8/13/2026, 1:00:00 AM	57.0%
8/13/2026, 12:00:00 AM	52.0%
8/12/2026, 11:00:00 PM	49.0%
8/12/2026, 10:00:00 PM	51.5%
8/12/2026, 9:00:00 PM	57.5%
8/12/2026, 8:00:00 PM	48.0%
8/12/2026, 7:00:00 PM	48.5%
8/12/2026, 6:00:00 PM	50.5%
8/12/2026, 5:00:00 PM	51.5%
8/12/2026, 4:00:00 PM	50.5%
8/12/2026, 3:00:00 PM	50.5%
8/12/2026, 2:00:00 PM	50.5%
8/12/2026, 1:00:00 PM	50.5%
8/12/2026, 12:00:00 PM	50.5%
8/12/2026, 11:00:00 AM	50.5%
8/12/2026, 10:00:00 AM	51.0%
8/12/2026, 9:00:00 AM	51.0%
8/12/2026, 8:00:00 AM	50.5%
8/12/2026, 7:00:00 AM	50.5%
8/12/2026, 6:00:00 AM	50.5%
8/12/2026, 5:00:00 AM	50.5%
8/12/2026, 4:00:00 AM	50.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-7.5 pp

7d Change

Only 1d of listing history

24h Volume

$63.4K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$22.8K

Market Significance

Moderate (68)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 1 day

End Date

Aug 13, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 21/100.

Probability Momentum 3

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 83

Persistence 48

Data Confidence Medium (62)

Next Steps

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