Set Handicap: Jodar (-1.5) vs Nakashima (+1.5)

Open · Resolves in 7 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

48.0%

24h Change

+3.5 pp

Signal Score

12/100

Data Confidence

Low (32)

Signal passed quality checks

Market data

Updated 5 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-12 22:45 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h history insufficient for probability change
Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $14,340

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

48.0%

24h Change

+3.5 pp

7d Change

Only 1d of listing history

Coverage

23h of stored history

24 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 12, 10:45 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/12/2026, 10:45:00 PM	48.0%
8/12/2026, 10:00:00 PM	45.0%
8/12/2026, 9:00:00 PM	42.5%
8/12/2026, 8:00:00 PM	42.5%
8/12/2026, 7:00:00 PM	42.5%
8/12/2026, 6:00:00 PM	44.0%
8/12/2026, 5:00:00 PM	44.0%
8/12/2026, 4:00:00 PM	44.0%
8/12/2026, 3:00:00 PM	44.5%
8/12/2026, 2:00:00 PM	44.5%
8/12/2026, 1:00:00 PM	41.5%
8/12/2026, 12:00:00 PM	44.0%
8/12/2026, 11:00:00 AM	44.0%
8/12/2026, 10:00:00 AM	43.5%
8/12/2026, 9:00:00 AM	44.0%
8/12/2026, 8:00:00 AM	44.0%
8/12/2026, 7:00:00 AM	44.0%
8/12/2026, 6:00:00 AM	44.5%
8/12/2026, 5:00:00 AM	46.0%
8/12/2026, 4:00:00 AM	44.5%
8/12/2026, 3:00:00 AM	45.5%
8/12/2026, 2:00:00 AM	44.0%
8/12/2026, 1:00:00 AM	43.5%
8/12/2026, 12:00:00 AM	44.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+5.5 pp

7d Change

Only 1d of listing history

24h Volume

$98.3K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$14.3K

Market Significance

Moderate (68)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 7 days

End Date

Aug 19, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 12/100.

Probability Momentum 0

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 83

Persistence 0

Data Confidence Low (32)

Next Steps

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