Israel closes its airspace by September 30?

Open · Resolves in 10 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

99.7%

24h Change

+0.5 pp

Signal Score

40/100

Data Confidence

High (84)

24h probability rose 0.5pp; volume is 3.0x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 14 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-20 15:45 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 0.5pp
24h volume is 3.0x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $115,379

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

99.7%

24h Change

+0.5 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

167 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 20, 03:45 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
9/20/2026, 3:45:00 PM	99.7%
9/20/2026, 3:00:00 PM	99.1%
9/20/2026, 2:00:00 PM	97.5%
9/20/2026, 1:00:00 PM	98.0%
9/20/2026, 12:00:00 PM	97.0%
9/20/2026, 11:00:00 AM	97.3%
9/20/2026, 10:45:00 AM	97.3%
9/20/2026, 10:00:00 AM	97.3%
9/20/2026, 9:00:00 AM	97.2%
9/20/2026, 8:00:00 AM	97.6%
9/20/2026, 7:00:00 AM	97.4%
9/20/2026, 6:00:00 AM	97.5%
9/20/2026, 5:00:00 AM	98.1%
9/20/2026, 4:00:00 AM	98.2%
9/20/2026, 3:00:00 AM	97.7%
9/20/2026, 2:00:00 AM	97.7%
9/20/2026, 1:00:00 AM	97.7%
9/20/2026, 12:00:00 AM	98.0%
9/19/2026, 11:45:00 PM	98.0%
9/19/2026, 11:00:00 PM	98.5%
9/19/2026, 10:00:00 PM	98.6%
9/19/2026, 9:00:00 PM	98.8%
9/19/2026, 8:00:00 PM	99.0%
9/19/2026, 7:00:00 PM	99.0%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+2.1 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$216.0K

Volume vs Baseline

3.0x baseline

Liquidity

$115.4K

Market Significance

High (76)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 10 days

End Date

Oct 1, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 40/100.

Probability Momentum 2

Volume Activity 67

Liquidity Quality 93

Persistence 54

Data Confidence High (84)

Next Steps

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