US ceasefire against Iran continues through October 31?

Open · Resolves in 38 days View on Polymarket ↗ (opens in a new tab)

Current Probability

0.3%

24h Change

-69.2 pp

Signal Score

98/100

Data Confidence

High (88)

24h probability fell 69.2pp; volume is 4.8x the prior 6-day daily average

Data may be stale — last sync exceeded two update cycles. Freshness updates on the next successful sync.

Market data

Updated 24 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-30 20:48 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

  • 24h probability fell 69.2pp
  • 24h volume is 4.8x the prior 6-day daily average
  • Liquidity depth $103,900

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

No samples yet

Not enough history to chart yet (7d of stored history, 0 point s). Charts fill in after sync backfills CLOB history.

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Current

0.3%

24h Change

-69.2 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

0 stored snapshots

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-68.2 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$105.8K

Volume vs Baseline

4.8x baseline

Liquidity

$103.9K

Market Significance

High (76)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 38 days

End Date

Oct 31, 2026

Attention Score

97

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 98/100.

Probability Momentum 100
Volume Activity 98
Liquidity Quality 90
Persistence 99
Data Confidence High (88)

Next Steps

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