Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?

Open · Resolves in 100 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

33.5%

24h Change

+1.0 pp

Signal Score

43/100

Data Confidence

High (81)

24h probability rose 1.0pp; volume is 8.0x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 1 hour ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-23 18:19 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 1.0pp
24h volume is 8.0x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $108,044

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

33.5%

24h Change

+1.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

170 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 23, 06:15 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
9/23/2026, 6:15:00 PM	33.5%
9/23/2026, 6:00:00 PM	33.5%
9/23/2026, 5:00:00 PM	33.5%
9/23/2026, 4:00:00 PM	33.0%
9/23/2026, 3:00:00 PM	32.5%
9/23/2026, 2:00:00 PM	28.5%
9/23/2026, 1:15:00 PM	28.5%
9/23/2026, 1:00:00 PM	28.5%
9/23/2026, 12:00:00 PM	28.5%
9/23/2026, 11:00:00 AM	28.5%
9/23/2026, 10:00:00 AM	28.5%
9/23/2026, 9:00:00 AM	28.0%
9/23/2026, 8:00:00 AM	28.0%
9/23/2026, 7:30:00 AM	27.5%
9/23/2026, 7:00:00 AM	27.5%
9/23/2026, 6:00:00 AM	26.5%
9/23/2026, 5:00:00 AM	25.5%
9/23/2026, 4:00:00 AM	26.0%
9/23/2026, 3:00:00 AM	26.0%
9/23/2026, 2:00:00 AM	27.0%
9/23/2026, 1:00:00 AM	28.0%
9/23/2026, 12:00:00 AM	27.0%
9/22/2026, 11:00:00 PM	27.0%
9/22/2026, 10:00:00 PM	28.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$133.2K

Volume vs Baseline

8.0x baseline

Liquidity

$108.0K

Market Significance

High (78)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 100 days

End Date

Jan 1, 2027

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 43/100.

Probability Momentum 3

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 91

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (81)

Next Steps

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