Will Ethereum dip to $2,250 by December 31, 2026?

Open · Resolves in 99 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

34.0%

24h Change

+8.5 pp

Signal Score

33/100

Data Confidence

High (83)

24h probability rose 8.5pp; volume is 1.0x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 17 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-24 04:01 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 8.5pp
24h volume is 1.0x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $67,619

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

34.0%

24h Change

+8.5 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

160 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 24, 04:00 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
9/24/2026, 4:00:00 AM	34.0%
9/24/2026, 3:00:00 AM	33.5%
9/24/2026, 2:00:00 AM	34.5%
9/24/2026, 1:00:00 AM	34.0%
9/24/2026, 12:00:00 AM	34.5%
9/23/2026, 11:00:00 PM	34.5%
9/23/2026, 10:45:00 PM	34.5%
9/23/2026, 10:00:00 PM	34.5%
9/23/2026, 9:00:00 PM	34.0%
9/23/2026, 8:00:00 PM	33.0%
9/23/2026, 7:00:00 PM	33.0%
9/23/2026, 6:15:00 PM	33.5%
9/23/2026, 6:00:00 PM	33.5%
9/23/2026, 5:00:00 PM	34.0%
9/23/2026, 4:00:00 PM	34.5%
9/23/2026, 3:00:00 PM	34.5%
9/23/2026, 2:00:00 PM	31.0%
9/23/2026, 1:15:00 PM	31.5%
9/23/2026, 1:00:00 PM	29.5%
9/23/2026, 12:00:00 PM	27.5%
9/23/2026, 11:00:00 AM	27.0%
9/23/2026, 10:00:00 AM	27.0%
9/23/2026, 9:00:00 AM	27.0%
9/23/2026, 8:00:00 AM	25.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+0.5 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$80.3K

Volume vs Baseline

1.0x baseline

Liquidity

$67.6K

Market Significance

High (76)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 99 days

End Date

Jan 1, 2027

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 33/100.

Probability Momentum 28

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 88

Persistence 44

Data Confidence High (83)

Next Steps

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