Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026?
Current Probability
35.0%
24h Change
-15.5 pp
Signal Score
73/100
Data Confidence
High (86)
24h probability fell 15.5pp; volume is 8.1x the prior 6-day daily average
Why This Signal Matters
Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.
- 24h probability fell 15.5pp
- 24h volume is 8.1x the prior 6-day daily average
- Low liquidity ($3,574)
Probability History
Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.
Not enough history to chart yet (7d of stored history, 0 point s). Charts fill in after sync backfills CLOB history.
Browse other marketsCurrent
35.0%
24h Change
-15.5 pp
7d Change
Insufficient 7d price history
Coverage
7d of stored history
Market Snapshot
Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.
1h Change
-20.5 pp
7d Change
Insufficient 7d price history
24h Volume
$152.6K
Volume vs Baseline
8.1x baseline
Liquidity
$3.6K
Market Significance
Moderate (66)
Market Status
Closed
End Date
Sep 4, 2026
Attention Score
82
Signal Quality Breakdown
Components behind the hero Signal Score of 73/100.