Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?

Open · Resolves in 68 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

69.0%

24h Change

-2.5 pp

Signal Score

45/100

Data Confidence

High (80)

24h probability fell 2.5pp; volume is 7.1x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 2 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-21 04:13 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 2.5pp
24h volume is 7.1x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $19,225

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

69.0%

24h Change

-2.5 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

104 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 21, 04:00 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
9/21/2026, 4:00:00 AM	69.0%
9/21/2026, 3:00:00 AM	69.0%
9/21/2026, 2:00:00 AM	68.5%
9/21/2026, 1:00:00 AM	68.5%
9/21/2026, 12:00:00 AM	68.0%
9/20/2026, 11:00:00 PM	68.0%
9/20/2026, 10:15:00 PM	68.0%
9/20/2026, 10:00:00 PM	68.0%
9/20/2026, 9:00:00 PM	68.0%
9/20/2026, 8:00:00 PM	68.0%
9/20/2026, 7:00:00 PM	68.5%
9/20/2026, 6:30:00 PM	68.5%
9/20/2026, 6:00:00 PM	68.5%
9/20/2026, 5:00:00 PM	68.5%
9/20/2026, 4:00:00 PM	68.5%
9/20/2026, 3:45:00 PM	68.5%
9/20/2026, 3:00:00 PM	68.5%
9/20/2026, 2:00:00 PM	68.5%
9/20/2026, 1:00:00 PM	70.5%
9/20/2026, 12:00:00 PM	69.5%
9/20/2026, 11:00:00 AM	70.5%
9/20/2026, 10:45:00 AM	70.5%
9/20/2026, 10:00:00 AM	70.5%
9/20/2026, 9:00:00 AM	70.0%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$120.0K

Volume vs Baseline

7.1x baseline

Liquidity

$19.2K

Market Significance

High (72)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 68 days

End Date

Nov 30, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 45/100.

Probability Momentum 8

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 85

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (80)

Next Steps

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