Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?

Open · Resolves in 7 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

33.5%

24h Change

-12.0 pp

Signal Score

39/100

Data Confidence

High (80)

24h probability fell 12.0pp; volume is 1.4x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 4 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-20 10:59 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 12.0pp
24h volume is 1.4x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $78,911

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

33.5%

24h Change

-12.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

65 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 20, 10:45 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
9/20/2026, 10:45:00 AM	33.5%
9/20/2026, 10:00:00 AM	35.5%
9/20/2026, 9:00:00 AM	33.5%
9/20/2026, 8:00:00 AM	35.5%
9/20/2026, 7:00:00 AM	36.5%
9/20/2026, 6:00:00 AM	37.5%
9/20/2026, 5:00:00 AM	36.5%
9/20/2026, 4:30:00 AM	36.5%
9/20/2026, 4:00:00 AM	36.5%
9/20/2026, 3:00:00 AM	37.5%
9/20/2026, 2:00:00 AM	44.5%
9/20/2026, 1:00:00 AM	47.5%
9/20/2026, 12:00:00 AM	46.5%
9/19/2026, 11:45:00 PM	47.5%
9/19/2026, 11:00:00 PM	46.5%
9/19/2026, 10:00:00 PM	45.5%
9/19/2026, 9:00:00 PM	47.5%
9/19/2026, 8:15:00 PM	48.5%
9/19/2026, 8:00:00 PM	51.5%
9/19/2026, 7:00:00 PM	50.5%
9/19/2026, 6:00:00 PM	55.0%
9/19/2026, 5:00:00 PM	55.5%
9/19/2026, 4:00:00 PM	53.0%
9/19/2026, 3:00:00 PM	49.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$75.6K

Volume vs Baseline

1.4x baseline

Liquidity

$78.9K

Market Significance

High (72)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 7 days

End Date

Oct 1, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 39/100.

Probability Momentum 40

Volume Activity 20

Liquidity Quality 88

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (80)

Next Steps

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